Blog > Early Q1 2026 Orlando Market Update
A Steady Start, a More Balanced Playing Field, and What to Watch as We Head Toward Spring
The first full weeks of Q1 are confirming what many Orlando buyers and sellers suspected: the market didn’t “break” in 2025 — it normalized. Prices stayed resilient, inventory became more workable, and the frenzy cooled into something healthier: a market where strategy matters again.
The headline from the latest Orlando Regional REALTOR® Association data is balance. December closed with 11,389 homes on the market, 5.22 months of supply, and an overall median price of $380,313. Days on market averaged 78 — enough time for buyers to make informed decisions, but still quick enough that well-priced homes don’t linger.
What’s different in early 2026: rates are finally helping
Mortgage rates are the big mood-shifter right now. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey has the 30-year fixed rate at 6.06% (Jan 15, 2026) — the lowest level in more than three years. That doesn’t magically make homes “cheap,” but it does make monthly payments easier to model — and predictability brings buyers back into motion.
There’s also a policy backdrop creating headlines with reporting indicating the federal government is moving to purchase mortgage bonds to pressure rates lower, and there’s active discussion about restricting large institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Whether those proposals become lasting policy or not, the market is clearly reacting to the direction of travel.
Orlando’s early-Q1 pulse (What the Local Numbers are Saying)
ORRA’s weekly “Monday Morning Quarterback” snapshot for the week of Jan 4–Jan 10 shows single-family median pricing at $429,000, with 8,003 single-family homes in inventory, and condos/townhomes/villas at a $277,000 median.
Translation: there’s activity, but it’s not chaotic. Buyers are shopping more carefully. Sellers still win when a home is priced correctly and presented well.
Dr. Phillips / Bay Hill / Orange Tree (32819): “Flight to Quality” is real
For the Dr. Phillips / Bay Hill / Orange Tree corridor, the story remains consistent: premium homes still command attention, but buyers are selective.
In December 2025, 32819 shows a $525,000 median sale price (+8.5% YoY) and 71 days on market on average.
This is exactly why Orlando luxury homes for sale don’t behave like the broader market — and why experienced Orlando realtors and real estate agents in Orlando earn their keep in early 2026.
Windermere (34786): Stable Pricing, Longer Decision Cycles, and Premium Expectations
Windermere continues to operate like its own market. Median sale prices hover around $760K, roughly flat year-over-year, with homes selling in about 67 days.
That’s not weakness — it’s normal luxury-market behavior. Buyers are doing inspections, comparing condition, and rewarding turnkey homes (especially anything lake-adjacent, gated, or updated).
If you’re thinking about Luxury homes for sale in Windermere Florida, it’s a great moment to focus on property quality, lake access, and lifestyle — which is why terms like Lakefront estates in Windermere FL and Windermere homes with private dock still perform so well with serious buyers.
Winter Garden / Horizon West: Momentum + Value perception
Winter Garden remains a magnet for families and buyers stretching for lifestyle. Winter Garden had a $625,000 median (+20.2% YoY) with 57 days on market in December 2025. Some of that is product mix (newer homes, master-planned inventory), but some of it is simple: buyers see value versus core lakefront and certain “legacy” neighborhoods.
Migration Tailwinds (The Quiet Driver Behind Orlando Property Values)
Florida’s inbound demand remains a real tailwind. U-Haul’s 2025 Growth Index ranked Florida #2 (behind Texas), and notes California last, with New York among the bottom group. People relocate for many reasons (jobs, weather, family, quality of life), but the pattern continues to support demand—especially in areas with schools, amenities, and well-run communities.
Practical Advice for Early Q1 2026
For sellers: win before the spring competition wave
-
List early if you can. Spring inventory is coming, and early Q1 listings can stand out more.
-
Price for today’s comps, not last year’s peak expectations. A balanced market punishes “wish pricing.”
-
Condition matters more than ever: fresh paint, clean landscaping, and crisp photography still move the needle — especially for Orlando gated community homes, Orlando golf course homes, and Orlando waterfront properties.
For buyers: you have time — until you don’t
-
With inventory healthier, buyers can negotiate inspection items and concessions more often than they could in 2021–2022.
-
The best homes still go quickly. If you want Orlando homes with a pool for sale or a true “move-in ready” property in a prime neighborhood, be ready to act.
-
First-time buyers should be realistic: nationally, first-time buyers are only 21% of purchases — affordability is still the main constraint. That’s why a strong plan matters for any First-time home buyer Orlando search.
2026: Three Things to Watch Next
-
Mortgage rates (direction matters more than perfection).
-
Inventory quality (more Homes for sale in Orlando doesn’t always mean more good homes).
-
Local segmentation (prime areas can strengthen even if the broader market stays flat).
If your goal is buying, selling, or Orlando property investment in 2026, the advantage goes to people who treat this as a strategy year — not a guessing year.
Call, text, or email me anytime to discuss your plans for 2026! Joenewstreet@gmail.com | 407-230-9901